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Episode 102

Simulating Numb3rs: Uncertainty Principle

Atufa Shireen
6 min readDec 27, 2024

Snapshot of the simulation:

  • Agent Based Modeling
  • Directed Graphs
  • Probabilistic Modeling

This edition of “Simulating Numb3rs” is dedicated to reconstructing the case from Episode 2 of the TV series “Numb3rs” by generating synthetic datasets using computational simulations and techniques used in Probabilistic Modeling. If you haven’t yet dived into Numb3rs, you’re missing out on a thrilling journey of applied math, as it masterfully unravels how mathematical principles guide real-world problem-solving in the most complex investigations.

The episode opens with a high-stakes investigation as FBI Agent Don Eppes and his team are tasked with catching a string of seemingly predictable bank robberies across Southland, with the help of Charlie. As the FBI closes in on the robbers, the crime pattern takes an unexpected turn, becoming increasingly erratic. Charlie, observing the situation from a different perspective, explains the robbers’ behavior using a Minesweeper analogy:

  1. The robbers spend variable amounts of time in each bank, gathering crucial information about vulnerabilities before moving on, much like calculating safety of adjacent squares in Minesweeper.
  2. Each robbery helps them map out patterns, identifying weaknesses in multiple locations, much like revealing adjacent squares in the game.
  3. Each heist brings them closer…

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